forecasting and assessment of climate change over iran during future decades by using magicc-scengen model
Authors
abstract
abstract in this paper, we modeled the climate of iran for future periods. each period is a 30-years period centered on a year. the range of periods is from 2000 (i.e., 1986-2015) to 2100 (i.e., 2086-2115). this was made using 2 general circulation models (echam4 and hadcm2) and 18 ipcc scenarios. magicc-scengen was used as a tool for downscaling gcm low resolution output data. result of hadcm2 model shows a % 2.5decrease in precipitation until 2100 but echam4 shows a %19.8 increase for this period. another difference between results of these 2 models is that hadcm2 predicts an increase in precipitation in next decades for mazandaran, golestan, khorasan shomali, khorasan razavi, semnan, tehran and some parts of gilan and ghazvin provinces, while echam4 predicts a decrease for that regions. hadcm2 predicts precipitation decrease for southeast of country (hormozgan, kerman, bushehr, south of fars and some parts of sistan va baloochestan, but in echam4 that regions will have precipitation increase in similar period. about temperature, both hadcm2 and echam4 agree in temperature increase in next decades for all provinces. these 2 models predict, on the average, 3 to 3.6c increases in temperature until decade 2100. maximum increase in decadal temperature in echam4 is about 1c more than hadcm2 and both of them are in conformity with each other in spatial distribution of decadal temperature.
similar resources
climate change assessment over iran during future decades, using statistical downscaling of echo-g model
in spite of considerable increase in the resolution of general circulation and regional models, none of these models are capable to predict and downscale the meteorological outputs in the scale of meteorological station.in this regard, different dynamical and statistical models have been developed for downscaling outputs of gcms. in this paper, grided meteorological outputs of general circulati...
full textAssessment of impacts of future climate change on water resources of the Hulu Langat basin using the swat model
full text
Simulation of climate change in Iran during 2071-2100 using PRECIS regional climate modelling system
Parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using PRECIS regionalclimate modeling system in Iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44×0.44°C in latitude and longitude under SRESA2 and B2 scenarios. The dataset was based on HadAM3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Theoverall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 w...
full textFuture climate change impact on hydrological regime of river basin using SWAT model
Hydrological components in a river basin can get adversely affected by climate change in coming future. Manipur River basin lies in the extreme northeast region of India nestled in the lesser Himalayan ranges and it is under severe pressure from anthropogenic and natural factors. Basin is un-gauged as it lies in remote location and suffering from large data scarcity. This paper explores the imp...
full textOccupational Heat Stress in Outdoor Settings Considering the Regional Climate Change in the Future Decades in Iran
Background and aims: Nowadays, global warming and climate change have become one of the controversial topics that have an impact on the health of individuals and the threat to human life. In recent decades, particular attention has been paid to the issue of environmental change and its impact from different perspectives. Many studies have been conducted to study these effects (generally from a ...
full textclimate change assessment by using lars-wg model in gilan province (iran)
. introduction most of the warming over the last 50 years has been caused by emissions of carbon dioxide (co2) and other greenhouse gases due to human activities. observed changes in the climate due to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations have made it essential to investigate these changes. the general circulation model (gcm) is the most current method of investigating climate change studie...
full textMy Resources
Save resource for easier access later
Journal title:
آب و خاکجلد ۲۵، شماره ۱، صفحات ۰-۰
Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com
copyright © 2015-2023